Development requires a master plan.
Development, as the conversion of an idea, must be predictable in terms of industrial schedules. Planning development requires large experience as well as performing a bridge between pragmatic optimism and pessimistic calculation.
To solidly convert a development into production, is it necessarily to anticipate all possible progress variations. Apart from the employment of simulations, all possible strategic options have to be used, to bypass the occurrence of different development trends.
Error source no.1 is still the focusing on only one line of development, that might not lead to the final goal.